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[BaseballTalkPro]

Atlanta Braves: Not that Turner Field is comfy cozy, but get the Braves away from home and they turn utterly pathetic: 12-29. It must be dispiriting when frustration pervades every road trip. Yes, Chipper Jones is having his best year, but Jeff Francoeur is having his worst. Give up or make a push in a bumbling division? If Mark Teixeira is dealt at the deadline, we’ll know the answer.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=sh-midseasongrades070108&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[bostonabstract]

the braves have just been really unlucky on the road. they're rs/ra pythagorean shows that they have really been playing a lot better than their record shows. actually, according to baseball prospectus' adjusted standings, they've been the best team in the east. it's just that a lot of stupid random luck factors aren't going their way. some of that probably has to be attributed to frenchy, whose .300 obp has been sitting in the six hole for most of the season. but none of their hitters are really performing any worse in certain situations than they do overall. their record this season in one run games is like 3-3540, and there is no statistical evidence that any tangible fault they have is causing that. it's just dumb luck. that's the glory of a 162 game season though. i wouldn't guarantee that they'll win the nl east, or that they'll even finish in the top 3. but they have been playing the best baseball of anyone in that division up to this point, and ending up on the wrong side of a hypothetical coin toss a lot is a lot of the reason why that doesn't show in the standings.